The Ins and Outs of Express Entry Draws: How IRCC Decides When to Send Out ITAs

Express Entry Draws Explained-The Ins and Outs of Express Entry Draws: How IRCC Decides When to Send Out ITAs
Express Entry is Canada's system for managing applications for permanent residence from skilled workers. Candidates complete profiles in the Express Entry pool, and the highest ranked candidates are invited to apply for permanent residency during regular invitation rounds, known as Express Entry draws.

Every few weeks, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) sets the number of candidates to invite and the minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score needed to qualify for that draw. These draws determine which candidates in the pool will receive an Invitation to Apply for permanent residence.

The decision on when to schedule Express Entry rounds and how many candidates to invite is made strategically by IRCC. Several factors go into determining the timing and size of these draws. This article will explain how IRCC decides when to hold Express Entry draws and the considerations that impact these important decisions for immigration to Canada.

What is an Express Entry Draw?
The Express Entry system manages applications for three of Canada’s main economic immigration programs - Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, and Canadian Experience Class.

People who qualify for one of these programs can submit a profile into the Express Entry pool, where they are ranked based on a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS). The CRS awards points based on factors like age, education, work experience, and language ability.

Express Entry holds periodic draws where they issue Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residence. In each draw, they establish a CRS cut-off score, and the highest ranked candidates above that score receive an ITA in that draw.

Receiving an ITA allows you to submit a complete application for permanent residence. IRCC aims to process applications within 6 months of submission.

The timing and number of ITAs issued in each draw is at the discretion of IRCC. They manage draws to help meet Canada's economic immigration targets.

Draw Frequency
Express Entry draws are typically held every couple of weeks by IRCC (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada), although the exact frequency has varied over time. In 2016 and 2017, draws were held roughly every 2 weeks.

In 2018, the draws became more sporadic, with anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks between rounds. 2019 saw draws resume a more regular cadence of every 2 to 4 weeks. During the pandemic in 2020, draws were put on hold for some time and then resumed a steady pattern of every 2 weeks.

In 2021, draws have been held frequently, often every week or every other week. This allowed IRCC to invite a record number of candidates and work through the backlog after previous pandemic slowdowns.

Towards the end of 2021 into early 2022, draw frequency slowed again to every 3 or 4 weeks, likely due to processing capacity limitations. Overall, while the exact draw interval fluctuates, IRCC aims to hold draws regularly to ensure a steady pace of invitations. The frequency may increase or slow depending on processing bandwidth, inventory backlogs, and immigration targets.

Draw Size
Express Entry draws vary significantly in how many Invitations to Apply (ITAs) are issued each round. Draw sizes have ranged from the minimum of 100 ITAs up to 5,000+ ITAs in a single draw.

The size of each draw depends on a variety of factors, including Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's (IRCC) admissions targets, processing capacity, and the number of candidates in the Express Entry pool.

In general, draw sizes tend to be larger earlier in the year when IRCC is looking to fill more of that year's allocations. The largest draws often occur in the first quarter between January and March.

Draws then tend to gradually get smaller through the middle of the year. In the later months, draws may fluctuate more, with some large rounds mixed with minimum draws of only 100 ITAs.

The largest draws on record invited 5,000 or more candidates. However, IRCC has moved away from consistently inviting 5,000+ in recent rounds, instead using more varied draw sizes. This allows IRCC to more dynamically respond to the number of candidates in the pool and admissions targets.

Overall, while draw sizes are inconsistent, IRCC's aim is to match the number of ITAs with the available spots for permanent residence admissions each year. Larger draws help fill allocations faster earlier on, while smaller draws slow down invitations later when fewer spots remain. This helps manage intake as IRCC transitions between program years.

Factors in Draw Decisions
IRCC considers several factors when deciding when to schedule Express Entry draws and determining draw sizes. Some of the main factors include:

Number of candidates in the pool: IRCC monitors the pool size and how it is changing over time. As more candidates enter the pool, this creates a need for larger and more frequent draws to manage growing inventory. If the pool shrinks, IRCC may slow down draws.

CRS cut-off trends: IRCC looks at the lowest CRS score invited in recent draws, which indicates the current level of competition. If cut-offs are decreasing, this signals IRCC needs to increase draw sizes to reach candidates before their scores expire. Rising cut-offs suggest room to do smaller draws targeting the highest-ranked candidates.

Program targets: The government sets multi-year targets for admissions through Express Entry streams. IRCC aims to manage draws to ensure these worker and provincial nominee targets can be met.

Processing capacity: IRCC's capacity to process applications in a timely manner also impacts draw decisions. Large backlogs may necessitate smaller draws, while faster processing opens room for bigger invitation rounds.

Economic factors: The state of Canada's labor market and economic conditions may influence when IRCC schedules draws. Slowdowns may require reduced admissions, while worker shortages create demand for bigger draws.

Policy priorities: Changes to government immigration priorities can impact Express Entry draws. For example, focusing on tech workers or bilingual candidates may change draw strategy.

Provincial considerations: Provincial nomination allocations and requests factor into when and how many invitations IRCC issues in each draw.

CRS Cut-Off
The Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) is used to score and rank Express Entry candidates in the pool. Each Express Entry draw has a CRS cut-off score, which is the minimum score needed for candidates to be issued an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for permanent residence.

IRCC sets the CRS cut-off score for each individual draw based on a few factors:

Number of ITAs they plan to issue in the draw
Number of candidates in the pool
CRS score distribution of candidates in the pool
If IRCC plans to issue more ITAs in a draw, the CRS cut-off score will be lower to allow more candidates to be invited. For smaller draws, the cut-off score will be higher and more selective.

The CRS cut-off also tends to lower when there are more candidates in the pool with high scores. With more high-scoring applicants, IRCC can set a lower cut-off and still invite the targeted number. When there are fewer candidates with high scores, IRCC raises the cut-off to only select the top-ranked profiles.

By adjusting the CRS cut-off strategically each draw, IRCC can control both the number and caliber of candidates that receive invitations to apply for permanent residence. Monitoring the CRS cut-off scores over time provides insight into the strength and volume of candidates in the Express Entry pool.

Forecasting Future Draws
Immigration experts closely monitor Express Entry draws and CRS cut-off scores to forecast when the next draw may occur and the number of ITAs that may be issued. While IRCC holds the final decision, experts analyze trends in draw frequency, size, and lowest CRS scores to make educated predictions.

Some key factors experts consider when forecasting upcoming draws include:

Current inventory levels - The number of profiles in the Express Entry pool awaiting ITAs is a major indicator. Higher inventory levels typically precede larger draws.

Application processing times - Faster processing of permanent residence applications allows IRCC to invite more candidates. Slower processing may limit draw sizes.

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) trends - When PNP nominations increase, more candidates become eligible for Express Entry, influencing draws.

Economic immigration levels targets - IRCC aims to issue ITAs at a pace allowing Canada to meet its annual immigration targets.

Seasonal fluctuations - Draws often follow yearly cycles, with more invites issued early in the year and decreasing through the summer.

While predictions are never certain, experts look at all available data to estimate when the next draw will happen and the potential CRS cutoff score. Checking sites like Canadavisa.com or CICNews for expert analysis can help applicants anticipate upcoming draws.

Following experts' draw predictions and understanding the methodology behind them is useful for Express Entry candidates planning and optimizing their profiles. While IRCC ultimately controls when draws are held, expert forecasts provide valuable insight into possible Express Entry invitation trends.

Impacts on Applicants
The frequency and size of Express Entry draws have a direct impact on applicants' chances of being invited to apply for permanent residence. Less frequent and smaller draws mean fewer ITAs (Invitations to Apply) are issued in each round. This leads to more competition among candidates in the Express Entry pool vying for those coveted invitations.

With fewer ITAs available, candidates need higher CRS scores to have a chance at getting drawn from the pool. If draws are infrequent, applicants must wait longer between chances to get an ITA. Those already in the pool may see their scores decline while waiting as they age and lose points, reducing their competitiveness. New candidates entering the pool with higher scores can bump others down the rankings.

When draws are larger and more frequent, a greater number of ITAs are issued in quicker succession. More candidates with a wider range of CRS scores will get drawn from the pool before their scores expire or decline. The CRS cut-off threshold for ITAs is also likely to be lower. Applicants have more opportunities to get selected and less time to wait between draws.

In general, applicants stand the best chance when IRCC conducts larger, more frequent draws. But regardless of draw conditions, candidates should strive for high CRS scores above cut-off thresholds to maximize their prospects. Paying close attention to score requirements and draw patterns can help applicants determine the competitiveness of their profiles.

Recent Changes
The Express Entry draw system has seen some significant changes over the past couple years as IRCC continues to adapt the system. Here are some of the key recent changes:

In 2020, IRCC began holding larger draws, inviting over 5,000 candidates at once rather than the previous norm of issuing around 3,900 ITAs per draw. The largest draws have invited over 6,000 candidates. These larger draws helped IRCC invite more applicants and reduce backlogs, given disruptions to immigration flows during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In December 2020, IRCC announced they would only hold Express Entry draws when they need to meet immigration targets. Previously draws were routinely held every 2 weeks. This change allows IRCC to have more flexibility and control over invitation numbers.

With the shift to an employer-driven system, IRCC has held targeted draws that require a candidate to have a job offer or be in an eligible healthcare profession. This allows IRCC to invite candidates who will contribute to urgent economic and labor market needs.

Since July 2021, Express Entry draws have only invited candidates with scores above 500 points and increasingly higher CRS cut-off scores. This allows IRCC to invite top-ranking candidates in the pool first.

In late 2021, IRCC began issuing ITAs through program-specific draws instead of general Express Entry draws. This allows finer control over which programs candidates are invited for.

The Express Entry system continues to evolve as IRCC adapts to meet Canada's immigration needs and backlogs. Applicants should stay up-to-date on changes as they consider when to apply.

Conclusion
Express Entry draws determine which applicants in the pool will receive invitations to apply for permanent residence in Canada. The frequency and size of draws is carefully considered by IRCC based on Canada's economic immigration targets and priorities.

Several key factors influence when draws are held and how many ITAs are issued, including:

Current inventory of applications
Annual and quarterly quotas
Backlogs and processing times
Provincial nominee allocations
CRS cut-off trends
Seasonal fluctuations
While future draws can be difficult to predict precisely, applicants can make informed guesses based on recent trends. Monitoring cut-off scores, draw sizes, and inventory levels can hint at what upcoming rounds may bring.

Overall, Express Entry aims to balance Canada's economic goals with ensuring timely processing of qualified applicants. Draw decisions seek to maximize benefits for Canadian employers, provinces/territories, and immigrants. Paying attention to patterns helps applicants determine their chances of success.

In conclusion, a comprehensive understanding of the Express Entry draw schedule for 2023 is essential for prospective immigrants to Canada. Navigating the intricacies of these draws involves being cognizant of the diverse factors that influence CRS scores in Express Entry, such as educational background, language proficiency, and work experience. Familiarizing oneself with the meticulous IRCC decision-making process for immigration draws unveils the nuanced mechanisms guiding these pivotal events. This process integrates data analysis, stakeholder consultations, and alignment with public policy objectives, ensuring a balanced and informed approach to meeting both regional and national immigration needs.

Acknowledging the Provincial Nominee Program's (PNP) impact on Express Entry adds another layer of complexity to the immigration landscape. Understanding how PNP nominations influence the overall draw dynamics is crucial for applicants aiming to optimize their chances of receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA).

Furthermore, recognizing the significance of human capital factors in Express Entry draws underscores the system's emphasis on skills, education, and language proficiency. This reflects Canada's commitment to attracting individuals who can contribute positively to the nation's economy and society. Prospective immigrants navigating the intricacies of Express Entry must remain attuned to these human capital considerations.

For the latest and most accurate information, applicants are strongly encouraged to refer to the official IRCC website. By staying well-informed about the Express Entry draw schedule, factors influencing CRS scores, the IRCC decision-making process, PNP impacts, and human capital considerations, candidates can strategically and knowledgeably pursue their Canadian immigration goals.
Disclaimer:

The information provided in this conclusion is based on general knowledge and understanding up to the last update in January 2024. It is imperative to note that immigration policies, procedures, and guidelines are subject to change. Prospective immigrants and readers are advised to regularly check the official Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) website for the most up-to-date and accurate information regarding Express Entry draws, Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores, the IRCC decision-making process, Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) impacts, and human capital considerations.

While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the content, variations and updates in immigration policies may occur without prior notice. The provided information is not exhaustive and does not substitute official legal advice. The reader is encouraged to consult with immigration professionals or legal experts for personalized guidance tailored to their specific circumstances.

The authors Sanjay Prasher M.B.A, CICCWho is Member of the College of Immigration and Citizenship Consultant (CICC),Member Immigration Consultants of Canada Regulatory Council  (ICCRC),and CTIV publishers of this content disclaim any liability for actions taken or decisions made based on the information presented herein. The content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional or legal advice. Individual immigration journeys may vary, and it is crucial to rely on the most current and official sources for decision-making regarding immigration processes to Canada.